Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Gabriel MorenoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael SorokaPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Tawa grounded out to second, Marte scored, Kepler to third.3–5
- 7Olson homered to center (437 feet), Riley scored and Baldwin scored.2–5
- 7Vargas homered to right (366 feet).2–2
- 5Acuña Jr. doubled to left, Riley scored.1–2
- 4Moreno homered to left (379 feet).1–1
- 3Baldwin singled to right, Smith scored, Jarvis to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 54%
- ML ARI +112 / ATL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- ATL: Elo 53.5%, market 53.6%
- Fair odds
- ATL -116
- ARI +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.3 – 4.7 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −5 | ARI: Michael Soroka: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +25 Elo | ATL 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 53.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.93rd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 13th of 3030–31 | Road vs home | 41–233rd of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 11th of 301517 | Elo rating | 15336th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–55 | 70–53 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–33 | 43–42 |
| Underdog | 49–22 | 27–11 |
| Overs–unders | 50–66–8 | 58–59–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 13–12 ATL in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 25.