Seattle Mariners at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Brendan DonovanBatting1-3
- Bryce MillerPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Brewers- Luis LaraBatting3-6, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Kyle HarrisonPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lara singled to right, Contreras scored.0–22
- 8Yelich hit sacrifice fly to center, Vaughn scored on error and Ornelas scored on throwing error by center fielder Rodríguez, Contreras safe at third on error.0–21
- 8Contreras walked, Lockridge scored, Ornelas to second, Vaughn to third.0–19
- 8Ornelas singled to left, Ortiz scored, Vaughn to second, Lockridge to third.0–18
- 8Vaughn singled to left, Mitchell scored, Lockridge to second, Ortiz to third.0–17
- 8Lara homered to left (373 feet), Contreras scored and Yelich scored.0–16
- 7Vaughn grounded into fielder's choice to second third, Ortiz scored, Lockridge out at second, Hamilton to third.0–13
- 7Hamilton singled to center, Lara scored, Ortiz to second.0–12
- 6Bauers homered to right center (397 feet), Turang scored.0–11
- 6Hamilton homered to center (393 feet), Mitchell scored and Ortiz scored.0–9
- 5Yelich homered to right center (396 feet), Chourio scored and Bauers scored.0–6
- 5Contreras hit sacrifice fly to left, Turang scored.0–3
- 5Chourio singled to center, Hamilton scored.0–2
- 1Contreras singled to left, Bauers scored on error by catcher Raleigh.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 61%
- ML SEA +153 / MIL -165
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- MIL: Elo 62.8%, market 61.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -158
- SEA +158 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.3 – 4.2 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | −11 | SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.85 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Kyle Harrison: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +91 Elo | MIL 62.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 58.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 61.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +1.12nd of 30 |
| 29th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 25th of 3026–37 | Road vs home | 41–222nd of 30 |
| 28th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149825th of 30 |
| 18th of 301495 | Elo rating | 15611st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–74 | 66–59 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 32–57 | 43–49 |
| Underdog | 19–17 | 23–10 |
| Overs–unders | 60–57–8 | 53–68–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 2–7 MIL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.