Seattle Mariners at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Josh NaylorBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Brewers- Joey OrtizBatting2-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- DL HallPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Pratt grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Lara scored, Ortiz out at second.7–5
- 8Ortiz singled to right, Vaughn scored, Lara to third.7–4
- 6Ortiz hit sacrifice fly to right, Contreras scored.7–3
- 2Ortiz homered to left center (391 feet), Yelich scored.7–2
- 2Naylor singled to right, Arozarena scored and Canzone scored.7–0
- 2Rodríguez hit sacrifice fly to center, Donovan scored, Canzone to second, Arozarena to third.5–0
- 1Ward singled to right, Canzone scored and Young scored, Raleigh to second.4–0
- 1Canzone doubled to left, Arozarena scored and Donovan scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 53%
- ML SEA +108 / MIL -116
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.0 pts
- MIL: Elo 59.8%, market 52.8%
- Fair odds
- MIL -112
- SEA +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.6 – 3.9 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | −4 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.95 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Dustin May: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +69 Elo | MIL 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 57.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 52.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +1.31st of 30 |
| 28th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 25th of 3026–38 | Road vs home | 42–222nd of 30 |
| 28th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149825th of 30 |
| 21st of 301491 | Elo rating | 15651st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–75 | 67–59 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 32–57 | 44–49 |
| Underdog | 19–18 | 23–10 |
| Overs–unders | 61–57–8 | 54–68–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 2–8 MIL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.