Seattle Mariners at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Brendan DonovanBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- George KirbyPitching3.1 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Brewers- Garrett MitchellBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Robert GasserPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Mitchell homered to center (420 feet).4–7
- 4Canzone singled to center, Pereda scored, Arozarena to second.4–6
- 4Young scored on a passed ball by Sánchez, Pereda to second on passed ball by Sánchez.3–6
- 4Young scored on a passed ball by Sánchez, Pereda to second on passed ball by Sánchez.3–6
- 2Donovan doubled to center, Rodden scored and Ward scored.2–6
- 1Hamilton doubled to right, Mitchell scored.0–6
- 1Mitchell doubled to right, Ortiz scored and Yelich scored.0–5
- 1Ortiz singled to right, Sánchez scored, Yelich to third.0–3
- 1Sánchez doubled to left, Bauers scored and Turang scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 57%
- ML SEA +127 / MIL -136
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.0 pts
- MIL: Elo 62.7%, market 56.7%
- Fair odds
- MIL -131
- SEA +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.7 – 4.3 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1563 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −3 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Robert Gasser: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +90 Elo | MIL 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 56.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | +1.21st of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 24th of 3027–38 | Road vs home | 42–232nd of 30 |
| 27th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149824th of 30 |
| 20th of 301493 | Elo rating | 15631st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–75 | 67–60 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 32–57 | 44–50 |
| Underdog | 20–18 | 23–10 |
| Overs–unders | 62–57–8 | 55–68–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 3–8 MIL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.