Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Michael Harris IIBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler MahlePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting2-5
- Shane DrohanPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Harris II homered to right (380 feet).4–2
- 8Lara tripled to right, Yelich scored.3–2
- 6Dubón scored on error, Harris II safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Vaughn, Riley safe at third on error.3–1
- 4Murphy reached on infield single to third, Baldwin scored, Thomas to second.2–1
- 3Bauers singled to right, Turang scored, Bauers to second.1–1
- 2Dubón hit a ground rule double, Albies scored, Thomas to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 51%
- ML ATL +101 / MIL -108
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- MIL: Elo 54.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -104
- ATL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.0 – 4.0 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1567 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −11 | ATL: Tyler Mahle: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Shane Drohan: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +28 Elo | MIL 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +1.31st of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 12th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 30 |
| 8th of 301528 | Elo rating | 15671st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–57 | 69–61 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 45–45 | 46–51 |
| Underdog | 28–12 | 23–10 |
| Overs–unders | 59–65–6 | 56–70–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 11–12 MIL in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 23.