Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting3-4
- Kyle HarrisonPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zac ThorntonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Morel grounded into fielder's choice to third, Lindor scored on throwing error by third baseman Hamilton, Robert Jr. to second, Benge to third.2–3
- 9Yelich doubled to left, Contreras scored, Bauers to third.2–2
- 6Robert Jr. homered to left center (390 feet).1–2
- 5Lindor homered to center (400 feet).1–1
- 4Lara singled to left, Contreras scored, Lara to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 60%
- ML MIL -159 / NYM +148
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- MIL: Elo 56.9%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- MIL -152
- NYM +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.2 – 3.3 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1565 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −2 | MIL: Kyle Harrison: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Zac Thornton: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +48 Elo | MIL 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 60.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 60.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 60.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.2 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 4th of 3036–26 | Road vs home | 30–3526th of 30 |
| 24th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 30 |
| 1st of 301565 | Elo rating | 149515th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–62 | 62–69 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 46–52 | 27–42 |
| Underdog | 23–10 | 35–27 |
| Overs–unders | 56–71–4 | 58–62–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 18–7 NYM in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 25.