Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Danny JansenBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cody BradfordPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 0 K
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Logan HendersonPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Contreras hit sacrifice fly to center, Hamilton scored, Chourio to third.1–6
- 8Chourio singled to left, Frelick scored, Hamilton to second.1–5
- 7Contreras singled to center, Bauers scored.1–4
- 6Hamilton singled to center, Mitchell scored, Frelick to second.1–3
- 3Jansen homered to left (395 feet).1–2
- 1Yelich doubled to center, Bauers scored.0–2
- 1Contreras grounded out to shortstop, Turang scored, Bauers to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 67%
- ML TEX +195 / MIL -210
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- MIL: Elo 64.4%, market 66.6%
- Fair odds
- MIL -200
- TEX +200 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.0 – 4.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1569 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +15 | TEX: Cody Bradford: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIL: Logan Henderson: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +103 Elo | MIL 64.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 63.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 63.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 66.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +1.31st of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 21st of 3030–39 | Road vs home | 45–232nd of 30 |
| 29th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 149725th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301485 | Elo rating | 15691st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–77 | 71–63 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 25–50 | 48–53 |
| Underdog | 32–27 | 23–10 |
| Overs–unders | 65–60–9 | 58–72–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 3–6 MIL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.