Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Joc PedersonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Brenton DoyleBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Duran singled to center, Langford scored and Nimmo scored.4–10
- 6Doyle homered to left center (393 feet), Murakami scored and B. Montgomery scored.2–10
- 6Antonacci singled to left, Vargas scored, Murakami to second.2–7
- 5Peters homered to right (362 feet), Rogers scored.2–6
- 4Antonacci singled to left, Vargas scored, Murakami to second.2–4
- 4Vargas reached on infield single to second, Peters scored, Acuña to second.2–3
- 3Pederson homered to right center (394 feet), Freeman scored.2–2
- 2Doyle singled to left, B. Montgomery scored, Doyle out stretching at second.0–2
- 2B. Montgomery doubled to right, Meidroth scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 53%
- ML TEX +110 / CHW -118
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- CHW: Elo 53.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CHW -114
- TEX +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.9 – 4.1 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +6 | TEX: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Sean Burke: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +25 Elo | CHW 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.39th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 20th of 3030–38 | Road vs home | 40–276th of 30 |
| 29th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301487 | Elo rating | 149516th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–76 | 71–61 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 25–50 | 12–27 |
| Underdog | 32–26 | 59–34 |
| Overs–unders | 64–60–9 | 75–55–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 18–6 CHW in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 24.