Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Joey OrtizBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Robert GasserPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Tyrone TaylorBatting1-2, 2 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ortiz homered to center (384 feet), Yelich scored.9–4
- 7Frelick singled to left, Contreras scored, Bauers thrown out at third.7–4
- 7Contreras doubled to center, Chourio scored.6–4
- 6Kelly grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Hoerner scored, Busch out at third in rundown.5–4
- 6Yelich homered to right center (394 feet), Frelick scored.5–3
- 6Vaughn doubled to right, Contreras scored.3–3
- 6Turang scored on a balk, Contreras to third on a balk.2–3
- 6Turang scored on a balk, Contreras to third on a balk.2–3
- 5Pratt singled to left, Lara scored, Ortiz to second.1–3
- 4Taylor scored on error, Hoerner safe at first on error by pitcher Gasser.0–3
- 4Taylor doubled to left, Bregman scored and Suzuki scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 52%
- ML MIL +100 / CHC -121
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- CHC: Elo 51.2%, market 52.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -110
- MIL +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.9 – 5.1 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1565 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +2 | MIL: Robert Gasser: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHC: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +8 Elo | CHC 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 52.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.41st of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.2 | Margin | +1.03rd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 3rd of 3038–28 | Road vs home | 40–298th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149724th of 30 |
| 1st of 301565 | Elo rating | 15483rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–65 | 69–69 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 50–54 | 37–55 |
| Underdog | 23–11 | 32–14 |
| Overs–unders | 60–73–5 | 74–57–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 28–23 CHC in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 51.
- Aug 31MIL 3 @ CHC 17Picked CHC 50%Hit
- Jun 28CHC 4 @ MIL 3Picked MIL 60%Miss
- Jun 27CHC 8 @ MIL 2Picked MIL 58%Miss
- Jun 26CHC 2 @ MIL 6Picked MIL 69%Hit
- May 20MIL 5 @ CHC 0Picked CHC 53%Miss
- May 19MIL 5 @ CHC 2Picked MIL 53%Hit
- May 18MIL 9 @ CHC 3Picked CHC 59%Miss
- Oct 11CHC 1 @ MIL 3PlayoffsPicked MIL 57%Hit