Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Sal StewartBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching3.0 IP, 7 ER, 1 K
Cubs- Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatting4-6, 3 HR, 6 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Suzuki homered to left (406 feet), Kelly scored.5–17
- 8Kelly doubled to left, Taylor scored.5–15
- 7Hoerner singled to left, Suzuki scored, Bregman to third.5–14
- 7Crow-Armstrong homered to center (444 feet), Ramirez scored and Kelly scored.5–13
- 5Kelly homered to left (371 feet), Taylor scored and Ramirez scored.5–10
- 5Bleday hit sacrifice fly to center, De La Cruz scored.5–7
- 4Bregman singled to left, Crow-Armstrong scored, Suzuki to second.4–7
- 3Stewart homered to left center (431 feet), De La Cruz scored.4–6
- 2Crow-Armstrong homered to right (375 feet), Ramirez scored.2–6
- 2Kelly flied out to right, Taylor scored on throwing error by shortstop De La Cruz, Ramirez safe at second on error.2–4
- 2Suárez homered to center (413 feet), Stephenson scored.2–3
- 1Bregman homered to center (416 feet), Suzuki scored.0–3
- 1Crow-Armstrong homered to right center (435 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 66%
- ML CIN +189 / CHC -204
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- CHC: Elo 62.4%, market 66.0%
- Fair odds
- CHC -194
- CIN +194 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.0 – 5.5 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −4 | CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +88 Elo | CHC 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 64.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 64.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 66.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.21st of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.93rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 13th of 3032–35 | Road vs home | 38–289th of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149726th of 30 |
| 25th of 301471 | Elo rating | 15444th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–69 | 67–68 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–30 | 35–54 |
| Underdog | 50–39 | 32–14 |
| Overs–unders | 71–62–2 | 71–57–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 25–22 CHC in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 47.