Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Ian HappBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Clay HolmesPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Diamondbacks- Ryan WaldschmidtBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching6.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Waldschmidt homered to left (408 feet), Fernandez scored.4–5
- 8Perdomo singled to center, Nootbaar and Moreno scored, Perdomo to second.4–3
- 8Moreno doubled to right, Barrosa scored, Nootbaar to third.4–1
- 6Busch singled to left, Suzuki scored.4–0
- 4Happ homered to right (397 feet), Suzuki and Busch scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 50%
- ML CHC -104 / ARI -103
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.7 pts
- CHC: Elo 54.8%, market 50.1%
- Fair odds
- CHC -100
- ARI +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.3 – 4.2 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +3 | CHC: Clay Holmes: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +33 Elo | CHC 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 50.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 5th of 3038–29 | Road vs home | 37–289th of 30 |
| 27th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150012th of 30 |
| 4th of 301549 | Elo rating | 150911th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–66 | 72–60 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 35–52 | 22–34 |
| Underdog | 31–14 | 50–26 |
| Overs–unders | 69–56–7 | 55–69–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 12–12 ARI in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 24.