Chicago Cubs at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Alex BregmanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- David PetersonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Mariners- Randy ArozarenaBatting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Kade AndersonPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Arozarena homered to center (404 feet), Rivas scored.4–5
- 9Rivas singled to right, We. Wilson scored.4–3
- 6Taylor hit a ground rule double, Hoerner scored.4–2
- 6Busch homered to center (408 feet).3–2
- 6Bregman homered to center (415 feet).2–2
- 5Canzone grounded into fielder's choice to second, We. Wilson scored, Arozarena out at second, Rivas to third.1–2
- 5Alcántara hit sacrifice fly to right, Taylor scored.1–1
- 1Arozarena homered to center (416 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 53%
- ML CHC +110 / SEA -118
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- SEA: Elo 46.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -114
- CHC +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.6 – 3.9 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −4 | CHC: David Peterson: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Kade Anderson (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +28 Elo | CHC 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.930th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 5th of 3036–28 | Road vs home | 34–2912th of 30 |
| 24th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 30 |
| 4th of 301544 | Elo rating | 149320th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–66 | 52–77 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 33–52 | 32–58 |
| Underdog | 30–14 | 20–19 |
| Overs–unders | 67–55–7 | 64–57–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 5–5 SEA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.