Chicago Cubs at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Alex BregmanBatting3-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Emerson HancockPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Rivas singled to center, Arozarena scored, Naylor to second.5–6
- 9Bregman homered to left center (405 feet).5–5
- 8Happ homered to right center (432 feet).4–5
- 5Arozarena singled to center, Rodden scored.3–5
- 2Donovan singled to right, Young scored.3–4
- 2Raleigh homered to left center (410 feet), Naylor scored and Ward scored.3–3
- 1Bregman homered to left (373 feet), Busch scored.3–0
- 1Crow-Armstrong homered to right center (367 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 50%
- ML CHC -103 / SEA -105
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- SEA: Elo 44.0%, market 50.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -101
- CHC +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.7 – 3.8 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −4 | CHC: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Emerson Hancock: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +42 Elo | CHC 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 50.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.930th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 5th of 3036–27 | Road vs home | 33–2914th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149724th of 30 |
| 4th of 301545 | Elo rating | 149220th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–66 | 52–76 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 33–52 | 32–57 |
| Underdog | 29–14 | 20–19 |
| Overs–unders | 66–55–7 | 63–57–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 5–4 SEA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.