Chicago Cubs at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Pedro RamirezBatting3-6, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Mariners- Randy ArozarenaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ramirez singled to right, Busch scored, Arias to second.19–2
- 9Arias grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Suzuki scored, Happ out at second, Busch to third.18–2
- 9Bregman hit sacrifice fly to center, Alcántara scored.17–2
- 8Ramirez homered to left (363 feet), Bregman scored, Happ scored and Arias scored.16–2
- 8Arias reached on infield single to pitcher, Busch scored, Happ to second, Bregman to third.12–2
- 8Happ walked, Suzuki scored, Bregman to second, Busch to third.11–2
- 8Crow-Armstrong homered to right (355 feet), Kelly scored.10–2
- 8Kelly reached on infield single to third, Ramirez scored, Kelly to second.8–2
- 6Crow-Armstrong reached on infield single to shortstop, Ramirez scored.7–2
- 5Bregman grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Crow-Armstrong scored, Busch out at second, Suzuki to third.6–2
- 3Happ homered to right (378 feet), Suzuki scored, Busch scored and Bregman scored.5–2
- 3Conforto homered to right (356 feet).1–2
- 2Robles scored on throwing error by catcher Kelly.0–2
- 2Robles scored on throwing error by catcher Kelly.0–2
- 1Arozarena homered to left (358 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 54%
- ML CHC -122 / SEA +113
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.1 pts
- CHC: Elo 60.1%, market 53.9%
- Fair odds
- CHC -117
- SEA +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.9 – 3.6 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −37 | CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 1.83 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +71 Elo | CHC 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 53.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.930th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 5th of 3036–29 | Road vs home | 35–2912th of 30 |
| 25th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 30 |
| 5th of 301542 | Elo rating | 149418th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–66 | 52–78 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 33–52 | 32–59 |
| Underdog | 31–14 | 20–19 |
| Overs–unders | 68–55–7 | 65–57–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 5–6 SEA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.