Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- JJ BledayBatting4-6, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Rhett LowderPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Diamondbacks- Tim TawaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Waldschmidt singled to right, Arenado scored, Fernandez to third.11–5
- 8McLain homered to left center (395 feet).11–4
- 7Stephenson singled to left, De La Cruz scored, Stewart to second.10–4
- 7Rodríguez homered to right center (424 feet).9–4
- 6Tawa homered to left center (391 feet), Arenado scored.8–4
- 6Bleday homered to right (370 feet).8–2
- 5Nootbaar grounded into fielder's choice to second, Vargas scored, Fernandez out at second.7–2
- 5De La Cruz homered to right (427 feet).7–1
- 4Arenado homered to left (368 feet).6–1
- 4McLain walked, Stewart scored, Suárez to second, Bleday to third. Cincinnati Reds challenged: call on the field was overturned.6–0
- 4Stephenson hit sacrifice fly to center, De La Cruz scored, Stewart to third.5–0
- 4Stewart singled to left, Rodríguez scored, De La Cruz to second.4–0
- 3Stephenson hit sacrifice fly to center, Bleday scored.3–0
- 3Bleday tripled to center, Stewart scored.2–0
- 1Bleday doubled to right, De La Cruz scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 64%
- ML CIN +173 / ARI -187
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- ARI: Elo 59.6%, market 64.0%
- Fair odds
- ARI -178
- CIN +178 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.6 – 4.9 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | 0 | CIN: Rhett Lowder: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ARI: Michael Soroka: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +68 Elo | ARI 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 62.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 62.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 64.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 16th of 3029–32 | Road vs home | 36–269th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150013th of 30 |
| 26th of 301469 | Elo rating | 151410th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–66 | 71–58 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–29 | 21–33 |
| Underdog | 47–37 | 50–25 |
| Overs–unders | 68–59–2 | 54–67–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 10–13 ARI in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 23.