St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Ivan HerreraBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Reds- Dane MyersBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Rhett LowderPitching6.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10De La Cruz doubled to left, Stephenson scored.5–6
- 9Myers homered to left center (396 feet).5–5
- 8Torres singled to left, Walker scored, Winn to third.5–4
- 6Rodríguez singled to center, Suárez scored and Toglia scored, Rodríguez out stretching at second. Cincinnati Reds challenged: call on the field was upheld.4–4
- 6Toglia doubled to right, Bleday scored, Suárez to third.4–2
- 6Jordan singled to left, Church scored, Torres thrown out at third.4–1
- 6Church singled to center, Walker scored.3–1
- 4Winn singled to right, Burleson scored, Báez to second.2–1
- 4Herrera homered to center (395 feet).1–1
- 1Suárez hit sacrifice fly to center, De La Cruz scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 52%
- ML STL -112 / CIN +104
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- STL: Elo 53.7%, market 51.9%
- Fair odds
- STL -108
- CIN +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.6 – 4.4 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −5 | STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Rhett Lowder: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +26 Elo | STL 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 51.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.822nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.727th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 7th of 3032–27 | Road vs home | 30–3423rd of 30 |
| 1st of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 16th of 301497 | Elo rating | 147326th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–56 | 61–63 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 13–29 | 16–28 |
| Underdog | 56–27 | 45–35 |
| Overs–unders | 49–69–7 | 64–58–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 26–22 CIN in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 48.