Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Xavier EdwardsBatting1-4
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Reds- Eugenio SuarezBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Chase BurnsPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 6Suárez doubled to center, Stephenson scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 52%
- ML MIA +105 / CIN -113
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- CIN: Elo 49.0%, market 52.1%
- Fair odds
- CIN -109
- MIA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.7 – 3.8 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | +10 | MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.93 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Chase Burns: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +7 Elo | MIA 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 52.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 25th of 3024–35 | Road vs home | 29–3122nd of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 14th of 301495 | Elo rating | 147825th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–63 | 60–60 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 26–30 | 16–26 |
| Underdog | 33–33 | 44–34 |
| Overs–unders | 60–59–3 | 63–55–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 11–13 CIN in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 24.