Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Nick GonzalesBatting2-3
- Lake BacharPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Marlins- Griffin ConineBatting2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Janson JunkPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Hernández homered to left center (415 feet), Conine scored.2–8
- 4Conine homered to center (403 feet).2–6
- 4Valdez hit sacrifice fly to center, Gonzales scored.2–5
- 3Edwards hit sacrifice fly to right, Sanoja scored, Jiménez to third.1–5
- 3Mack walked, Ramírez scored, Jiménez to second, Sanoja to third.1–4
- 3Jiménez hit by pitch, Hernández scored, Sanoja to second, Ramírez to third.1–3
- 3Ramírez doubled to left, Conine scored, Hernández to third.1–2
- 2Edwards reached on infield single to first, Marsee scored, Mack to second, Ramírez to third.1–1
- 2Gonzalez grounded into fielder's choice to second, Gonzales scored on throwing error by shortstop Lopez, Gonzalez to second, Valdez out at second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 53%
- ML PIT +108 / MIA -116
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- MIA: Elo 50.1%, market 52.8%
- Fair odds
- MIA -112
- PIT +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.9 – 4.1 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −10 | PIT: Carmen Mlodzinski: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIA: Janson Junk: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +1 Elo | MIA 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 52.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.112th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 17th of 3028–33 | Road vs home | 37–245th of 30 |
| 5th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 19th of 301492 | Elo rating | 149614th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–68 | 58–62 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–42 | 25–30 |
| Underdog | 30–26 | 33–32 |
| Overs–unders | 66–51–4 | 58–59–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 13–12 MIA in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 25.