Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Ronny SimonBatting1-2
- Paul SkenesPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Esteury RuizBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 5Edwards reached on infield single to shortstop, Ruiz scored on throwing error by shortstop Gonzalez, Edwards to second.0–2
- 3Ruiz homered to left (384 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 52%
- ML PIT -111 / MIA +103
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- PIT: Elo 45.6%, market 51.6%
- Fair odds
- PIT -107
- MIA +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.6 – 3.4 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | 0 | PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +31 Elo | MIA 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 51.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.112th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 16th of 3028–32 | Road vs home | 36–245th of 30 |
| 5th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 19th of 301493 | Elo rating | 149516th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–67 | 57–62 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–41 | 25–30 |
| Underdog | 30–26 | 32–32 |
| Overs–unders | 66–50–4 | 58–58–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 13–11 MIA in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 24.