Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Rafael Flores Jr.Batting2-5, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Braxton AshcraftPitching9.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Marlins- Owen CaissieBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler PhillipsPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Caissie homered to center (402 feet).13–1
- 9Flores Jr. homered to left (399 feet), Mangum scored and Triolo scored.13–0
- 9Gonzalez homered to right (396 feet), Valdez scored.10–0
- 8Flores Jr. homered to left (384 feet), Mangum scored and Triolo scored.8–0
- 6Triolo singled to left, Gonzalez scored and Valdez scored, Mangum to second.5–0
- 6Mangum hit by pitch, Gonzales scored, Gonzalez to second, Valdez to third.3–0
- 5Triolo homered to right center (395 feet). Umpire review: call on the field was upheld.2–0
- 5Mangum scored on a balk.1–0
- 5Mangum scored on a balk.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 53%
- ML PIT -117 / MIA +109
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- PIT: Elo 45.4%, market 53.0%
- Fair odds
- PIT -113
- MIA +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.1 – 3.9 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +6 | PIT: Braxton Ashcraft: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Tyler Phillips: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +32 Elo | MIA 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 53.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.210th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 18th of 3028–34 | Road vs home | 38–245th of 30 |
| 5th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301489 | Elo rating | 149914th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–69 | 59–62 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–42 | 26–30 |
| Underdog | 30–27 | 33–32 |
| Overs–unders | 67–51–4 | 59–59–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 13–13 MIA in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 26.