St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Quinn MathewsPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Reds- Dane MyersBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kent EmanuelPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 4Myers homered to left (391 feet).2–1
- 1Burleson doubled to right, Herrera scored and Báez scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 51%
- ML STL -109 / CIN +101
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- STL: Elo 50.4%, market 51.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -105
- CIN +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.8 – 4.7 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | 0 | STL: Quinn Mathews: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CIN: Kent Emanuel (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | STL +3 Elo | STL 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 51.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.823rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.727th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 9th of 3031–27 | Road vs home | 30–3323rd of 30 |
| 1st of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 17th of 301496 | Elo rating | 147425th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–55 | 60–63 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 13–28 | 16–28 |
| Underdog | 56–27 | 44–35 |
| Overs–unders | 49–68–7 | 64–57–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 25–22 CIN in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 47.