Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jakob MarseeBatting4-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan GustoPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Reds- Matt McLainBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Pauley doubled to right, Caissie scored.8–4
- 8Conine singled to right, Edwards scored, Hernández to third.7–4
- 8Hernández singled to right, Ramírez scored and Ruiz scored, Edwards to third.6–4
- 8Pauley hit sacrifice fly to left, Caissie scored.4–4
- 5McLain homered to left (383 feet).3–4
- 5Hayes homered to left (392 feet).3–3
- 5Hernández singled to left, Marsee scored.3–2
- 4Mack homered to right center (385 feet).2–2
- 3Stewart singled to right, Hayes scored and McLain scored.1–2
- 3Marsee homered to right center (386 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 50%
- ML MIA -102 / CIN -105
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- CIN: Elo 51.4%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- CIN -101
- MIA +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.5 – 4.5 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −4 | MIA: Ryan Gusto: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +10 Elo | CIN 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.721st of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 25th of 3024–36 | Road vs home | 30–3120th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 16th of 301494 | Elo rating | 147923rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–63 | 60–61 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 26–30 | 16–27 |
| Underdog | 34–33 | 44–34 |
| Overs–unders | 60–60–3 | 63–56–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 11–14 CIN in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 25.