Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Javier SanojaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Reds- Tyler StephensonBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Sanoja homered to left (358 feet), Ramírez scored and Edwards scored.7–1
- 9Ramírez doubled to right, Hernández scored and Lopez scored.4–1
- 8Stephenson homered to center (390 feet).2–1
- 8Conine walked, Ramírez scored, Sanoja to second, Edwards to third. Cincinnati Reds challenged: call on the field was upheld.2–0
- 8Hernández homered to left (359 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 53%
- ML MIA -118 / CIN +110
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- MIA: Elo 50.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIA -114
- CIN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.4 – 4.1 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | 0 | MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +6 Elo | MIA 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.823rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.726th of 30 |
| 8th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–58th of 30 |
| 25th of 3025–36 | Road vs home | 30–3222nd of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 17th of 301496 | Elo rating | 147725th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–63 | 60–62 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 26–30 | 16–28 |
| Underdog | 35–33 | 44–34 |
| Overs–unders | 61–60–3 | 64–56–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 12–14 CIN in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 26.