Arizona Diamondbacks at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Lars NootbaarBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
Red Sox- Mickey GasperBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Payton TollePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Contreras grounded out to third, Rafaela scored.7–6
- 10Fernandez walked, Kepler scored, McCann to second, Tawa to third.7–5
- 10Arenado reached on infield single to shortstop, Moreno scored.6–5
- 6Gasper homered to right center (407 feet), Abreu scored and Contreras scored.5–5
- 6Nootbaar homered to right center (420 feet), Arenado scored.5–2
- 5Moreno doubled to center, Carroll scored and Waldschmidt scored.3–2
- 5Waldschmidt doubled to left, Fernandez scored.1–2
- 3Duran homered to right center (388 feet).0–2
- 1Sogard homered to right center (385 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 60%
- ML ARI +148 / BOS -159
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- BOS: Elo 58.2%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- BOS -152
- ARI +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.8 – 4.7 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +9 | ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Payton Tolle: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +57 Elo | BOS 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 58.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 60.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 16th of 3030–34 | Road vs home | 31–3119th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 11th of 301510 | Elo rating | 15463rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–58 | 64–62 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 20–33 | 35–45 |
| Underdog | 49–25 | 29–17 |
| Overs–unders | 52–67–8 | 58–64–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 6–5 BOS in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 11.