Boston Red Sox at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Connor WongBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Patrick SandovalPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Nick YorkeBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Lake BacharPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Yorke singled to right, Flores Jr. scored.3–8
- 5Wong homered to left center (417 feet), Duran scored and Seigler scored.3–7
- 3Davis hit sacrifice fly to center, Mangum scored.0–7
- 3Yorke singled to center, Lowe scored and Reynolds scored, Mangum to second.0–6
- 3Lowe singled to right, Valdez scored, Reynolds to second.0–4
- 3Reynolds singled to left, Triolo scored, Valdez to third.0–3
- 1Lowe singled to left, Reynolds scored.0–2
- 1Reynolds doubled to left, Valdez scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 50%
- ML BOS -105 / PIT -102
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 51.1%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- BOS -101
- PIT +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.0 – 4.0 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +16 | BOS: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Lake Bachar: team allows 0.82 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +8 Elo | BOS 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.210th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3037–26 | Road vs home | 31–3119th of 30 |
| 11th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15055th of 30 |
| 4th of 301543 | Elo rating | 149418th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–61 | 55–70 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 33–45 | 24–42 |
| Underdog | 29–16 | 31–28 |
| Overs–unders | 55–64–4 | 69–52–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 5–6 PIT in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 11.