Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Willson ContrerasBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Blue Jays- Myles StrawBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Monasterio hit sacrifice fly to right, Durbin scored, Duran to third.4–6
- 9Duran doubled to right, Abreu scored, Durbin to third.3–6
- 9Durbin singled to center, Contreras scored, Abreu to third.2–6
- 8Straw doubled to left, Clement scored and Giménez scored.1–6
- 8Springer hit sacrifice fly to center, Okamoto scored.1–4
- 8Clement walked, Valenzuela scored, Giménez to second, Okamoto to third.1–3
- 8Okamoto singled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored, Okamoto to second, Valenzuela to third.1–2
- 5Contreras homered to left center (408 feet).1–1
- 2Clement singled to center, Okamoto scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 55%
- ML BOS -129 / TOR +120
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 53.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -124
- TOR +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.7 – 3.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −9 | BOS: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +21 Elo | BOS 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.929th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3035–24 | Road vs home | 30–3119th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15054th of 30 |
| 4th of 301543 | Elo rating | 150213th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–59 | 61–60 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 31–43 | 25–39 |
| Underdog | 29–16 | 36–21 |
| Overs–unders | 53–62–4 | 60–57–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 23–27 TOR in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 50.