Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Ceddanne RafaelaBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Charles McAdooBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Rafaela sacrificed into double play, center to second to first, Seigler scored, Sogard thrown out at first. Umpire review: call on the field was overturned.1–2
- 6Giménez singled to right, Springer scored, Giménez to second.0–2
- 5McAdoo homered to right (373 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 61%
- ML BOS -162 / TOR +151
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 55.5%, market 60.8%
- Fair odds
- BOS -155
- TOR +155 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.5 – 3.5 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +1 | BOS: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +39 Elo | BOS 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 61.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 60.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 60.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.929th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 1st of 3035–22 | Road vs home | 28–3124th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15045th of 30 |
| 4th of 301545 | Elo rating | 149913th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–57 | 59–60 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 31–42 | 24–39 |
| Underdog | 29–15 | 35–21 |
| Overs–unders | 52–61–4 | 59–56–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 23–25 TOR in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 48.