Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Ceddanne RafaelaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Patrick SandovalPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Brett BatemanBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Straw doubled to left, Smith scored, Giménez to third.3–5
- 6Clement grounded into fielder's choice to second, Springer scored, Kirk out at second.3–4
- 5Bateman singled to center, Straw scored.3–3
- 5McAdoo hit sacrifice fly to right, Giménez scored.3–2
- 5Rafaela homered to center (411 feet).3–1
- 4Abreu homered to right center (370 feet).2–1
- 3Bateman doubled to left, Lukes scored, McAdoo to third.1–1
- 3Rafaela hit sacrifice fly to center, Monasterio scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 55%
- ML BOS +120 / TOR -129
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- TOR: Elo 50.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -124
- BOS +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.0 – 3.5 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +21 | BOS: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Dylan Cease: team allows 1.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +1 Elo | TOR 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.929th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 1st of 3035–23 | Road vs home | 29–3120th of 30 |
| 12th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15054th of 30 |
| 4th of 301544 | Elo rating | 150113th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–58 | 60–60 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 31–43 | 24–39 |
| Underdog | 29–15 | 36–21 |
| Overs–unders | 52–62–4 | 59–57–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 23–26 TOR in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 49.