Boston Red Sox at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Nick SogardBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Jake BennettPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Rafael Flores Jr.Batting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bubba ChandlerPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Yoshida singled to right, White scored, Sogard to second.4–8
- 7Reynolds scored on error, Valdez safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Durbin, Valdez safe at second on error.3–8
- 7Sogard singled to center, Duran scored, White to second.3–7
- 5Lowe homered to right (375 feet), Gonzalez scored and Reynolds scored.2–7
- 5Sogard hit sacrifice fly to center, Duran scored, Monasterio to second.2–4
- 5Monasterio singled to right, Durbin scored, Duran to third.1–4
- 4Flores Jr. singled to left, Valdez scored.0–4
- 4Valdez doubled to left, Reynolds scored and Simon scored.0–3
- 2Flores Jr. homered to right (371 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 52%
- ML BOS -113 / PIT +105
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 54.2%, market 52.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -109
- PIT +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.1 – 3.9 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +7 | BOS: Jake Bennett: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PIT: Bubba Chandler: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +29 Elo | BOS 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 52.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.210th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3036–25 | Road vs home | 30–3018th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15045th of 30 |
| 4th of 301544 | Elo rating | 149315th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–60 | 54–69 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 32–44 | 24–42 |
| Underdog | 29–16 | 30–27 |
| Overs–unders | 54–63–4 | 68–51–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 4–5 PIT in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 9.