Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Caleb DurbinBatting3-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Payton TollePitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting1-4
- Max ScherzerPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Durbin singled to left, Rafaela scored, Abreu to second.7–0
- 9Yoshida hit sacrifice fly to center, Sogard scored, Rafaela to third.6–0
- 8Durbin homered to left (384 feet), Rafaela scored, Abreu scored and Yoshida scored.5–0
- 1Contreras doubled to right, Abreu scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 57%
- ML BOS -136 / TOR +126
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- BOS: Elo 55.1%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- BOS -130
- TOR +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.0 – 3.5 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −13 | BOS: Payton Tolle: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TOR: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +36 Elo | BOS 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 59.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.029th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.424th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3035–25 | Road vs home | 31–3118th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15054th of 30 |
| 4th of 301541 | Elo rating | 150412th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–60 | 62–60 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 31–44 | 25–39 |
| Underdog | 29–16 | 37–21 |
| Overs–unders | 54–62–4 | 61–57–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 23–28 TOR in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 51.