Boston Red Sox at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Wilyer AbreuBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Pirates- Esmerlyn ValdezBatting2-4
- Jared JonesPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Jones singled to left, Monasterio scored.4–0
- 9Monasterio doubled to center, Duran scored and Durbin scored.3–0
- 2Abreu homered to right (420 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 53%
- ML BOS -119 / PIT +111
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- BOS: Elo 56.4%, market 53.4%
- Fair odds
- BOS -115
- PIT +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.9 – 3.6 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −5 | BOS: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Jared Jones: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +45 Elo | BOS 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 53.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.210th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3036–26 | Road vs home | 31–3017th of 30 |
| 11th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15045th of 30 |
| 4th of 301541 | Elo rating | 149616th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–61 | 55–69 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 32–45 | 24–42 |
| Underdog | 29–16 | 31–27 |
| Overs–unders | 55–63–4 | 69–51–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 4–6 PIT in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 10.