Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Sal StewartBatting1-4
- Nick LodoloPitching3.1 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Diamondbacks- Jordan LawlarBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Tawa doubled to center, Arenado scored.0–9
- 8Arenado singled to left, Perdomo scored.0–8
- 7Lawlar singled to center, Perdomo scored, Tawa to second.0–7
- 4Perdomo singled to center, Carroll scored.0–6
- 3Waldschmidt doubled to left, Lawlar scored, Fernandez to third.0–5
- 2Vargas hit sacrifice fly to center, Fernandez scored.0–4
- 2Lawlar homered to left (377 feet), Tawa scored.0–3
- 1Moreno singled to center, Carroll scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 59%
- ML CIN +141 / ARI -151
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- ARI: Elo 59.8%, market 59.2%
- Fair odds
- ARI -145
- CIN +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.8 – 4.7 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +8 | CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +69 Elo | ARI 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 57.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 59.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.7 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 13th of 3029–31 | Road vs home | 35–269th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150110th of 30 |
| 26th of 301472 | Elo rating | 151111th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–65 | 70–58 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–29 | 20–33 |
| Underdog | 47–36 | 50–25 |
| Overs–unders | 67–59–2 | 53–67–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 10–12 ARI in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 22.