St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Masyn WinnBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle LeahyPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Reds- Sal StewartBatting1-4
- Andrew AbbottPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Báez hit sacrifice fly to center, Walker scored.3–0
- 7Fermín doubled to left, Winn scored.2–0
- 5Winn homered to left (368 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 53%
- ML STL -115 / CIN +107
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- STL: Elo 53.5%, market 52.5%
- Fair odds
- STL -111
- CIN +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.6 – 4.4 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −6 | STL: Kyle Leahy: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +25 Elo | STL 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 52.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.823rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.726th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 8th of 3032–28 | Road vs home | 31–3423rd of 30 |
| 1st of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 16th of 301496 | Elo rating | 147425th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–57 | 62–63 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–30 | 16–28 |
| Underdog | 56–27 | 46–35 |
| Overs–unders | 50–69–7 | 65–58–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 26–23 CIN in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 49.