St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Jordan WalkerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Michael McGreevyPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Reds- Matt McLainBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Stephenson walked, De La Cruz scored, Bleday to second, Stewart to third.10–9
- 9Stewart singled to left, Myers scored and Suárez scored, De La Cruz to second.10–8
- 9Suárez singled to center, McLain scored, Myers to second.10–6
- 9Fermín singled to left, Burleson scored and Walker scored, Báez to second.10–5
- 9Báez walked, Herrera scored, Walker to second, Burleson to third.8–5
- 9Burleson singled to right, Wetherholt scored, Herrera to third.7–5
- 9Wetherholt safe at first on fielding error by center fielder Myers, Fermín and Winn scored on error. Wetherholt safe at second on error.6–5
- 6McLain homered to left (360 feet), Hayes scored, Stewart scored and Bleday scored.4–5
- 6Bleday singled to right, Rodríguez scored, Stewart to second, Hayes to third.4–1
- 3Walker homered to center (407 feet), Wetherholt scored and Herrera scored.4–0
- 1Walker grounded out to second, Wetherholt scored, Herrera to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 52%
- ML STL -110 / CIN +103
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- STL: Elo 50.8%, market 51.5%
- Fair odds
- STL -106
- CIN +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.6 – 4.4 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −8 | STL: Michael McGreevy: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +6 Elo | STL 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 51.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.025th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.727th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 8th of 3033–29 | Road vs home | 32–3523rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 16th of 301497 | Elo rating | 147325th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–57 | 62–65 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 14–30 | 16–29 |
| Underdog | 57–27 | 46–36 |
| Overs–unders | 51–70–7 | 66–59–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 27–24 CIN in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 51.