Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Sal StewartBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Diamondbacks- Ildemaro VargasBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Mitch BrattPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Carroll hit sacrifice fly to right, Vargas scored.3–5
- 7Vargas tripled to center, Lawlar scored and McCann scored.3–4
- 7Nootbaar grounded out to pitcher, Tawa scored, McCann to second, Lawlar to third.3–2
- 6Moreno hit sacrifice fly to center, Carroll scored.3–1
- 3Suárez singled to left, Stewart scored and Myers scored.3–0
- 3Stewart singled to right, De La Cruz scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 57%
- ML CIN +131 / ARI -140
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- ARI: Elo 56.9%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- ARI -135
- CIN +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.9 – 4.6 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −10 | CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Mitch Bratt: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +49 Elo | ARI 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 56.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 13th of 3030–32 | Road vs home | 36–279th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150013th of 30 |
| 25th of 301473 | Elo rating | 151011th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–66 | 71–59 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–29 | 21–34 |
| Underdog | 48–37 | 50–25 |
| Overs–unders | 69–59–2 | 55–67–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 11–13 ARI in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 24.