Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Michael ConfortoBatting3-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Diamondbacks- Jose FernandezBatting1-1
- Merrill KellyPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Hoerner hit sacrifice fly to right, Bregman scored, Happ to third.7–0
- 7Happ doubled to right, Busch scored, Bregman to third.6–0
- 6Kelly homered to left (392 feet).5–0
- 6Conforto homered to right (431 feet), Ramirez scored.4–0
- 5Suzuki doubled to left, Conforto scored.2–0
- 2Ramirez tripled to right, Happ scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 57%
- ML CHC -140 / ARI +130
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- CHC: Elo 52.1%, market 57.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -134
- ARI +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.8 – 4.2 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −10 | CHC: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +15 Elo | CHC 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 57.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 5th of 3037–29 | Road vs home | 37–279th of 30 |
| 26th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150013th of 30 |
| 4th of 301546 | Elo rating | 151210th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–66 | 72–59 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 34–52 | 22–34 |
| Underdog | 31–14 | 50–25 |
| Overs–unders | 69–55–7 | 55–68–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 11–12 ARI in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 23.