Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Tyler StephensonBatting2-3
- Chase BurnsPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Giants- Rafael DeversBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Carson WhisenhuntPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 2Devers homered to right center (427 feet), Koss scored and Gilbert scored.0–5
- 1Hill doubled to right, Devers scored, Lee thrown out at home.0–2
- 1Lee singled to center, Gilbert scored, Devers to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 62%
- ML CIN -170 / SF +158
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.1 pts
- CIN: Elo 49.8%, market 61.9%
- Fair odds
- CIN -162
- SF +162 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.3 – 3.2 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +2 | CIN: Chase Burns: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Carson Whisenhunt: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +1 Elo | SF 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 56.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 61.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.027th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 14th of 3030–33 | Road vs home | 29–3325th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150013th of 30 |
| 26th of 301472 | Elo rating | 146727th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–67 | 65–65 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–29 | 19–27 |
| Underdog | 48–38 | 46–38 |
| Overs–unders | 69–60–2 | 59–59–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 10–12 SF in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 22.