San Francisco Giants at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Jonah CoxBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Matt WilkinsonPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Red Sox- Nick SogardBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jake BennettPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Koss reached on infield single to shortstop, Koss scored on throwing error by right fielder Abreu.4–5
- 4Rafaela singled to center, Gasper scored.3–5
- 4Gasper doubled to right, Wong scored.3–4
- 4Wong doubled to left, Sogard scored. Boston Red Sox challenged: call on the field was overturned.3–3
- 3Rafaela singled to center, Jones scored.3–2
- 2Sogard homered to left center (415 feet).3–1
- 2Cox homered to left center (384 feet).3–0
- 1Bericoto singled to left, Adames scored, Eldridge to second.2–0
- 1Eldridge singled to right, Devers scored, Adames to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 66%
- ML SF +187 / BOS -201
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- BOS: Elo 60.5%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- BOS -192
- SF +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.5 – 5.0 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | −3 | SF: Matt Wilkinson: team allows 0.95 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · BOS: Jake Bennett: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +74 Elo | BOS 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 65.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 64.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 29th of 3023–44 | Road vs home | 33–3218th of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 27th of 301468 | Elo rating | 15463rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–65 | 65–64 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 19–27 | 36–47 |
| Underdog | 45–38 | 29–17 |
| Overs–unders | 58–59–12 | 60–65–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 5–6 BOS in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.