San Francisco Giants at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Bryce EldridgeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Carson WhisenhuntPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Guardians- Jo AdellBatting3-4, 1 HR, 6 RBI
- Foster GriffinPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Bailey grounded into fielder's choice to second shortstop, Martínez scored, Bailey to first on error by first baseman Eldridge, Genao out at second, Hoskins to third.1–8
- 4Martínez grounded out to pitcher, Kwan scored, Adell to third.1–7
- 4Adell singled to left, Rocchio scored, Adell to second, Kwan to second, Kwan safe at third on fielding error by left fielder Gilbert.1–6
- 2Adell singled to center, Kwan scored and Ramírez scored.1–5
- 2Eldridge homered to center (405 feet).1–3
- 1Adell homered to left (455 feet), Kwan scored and Ramírez scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 65%
- ML SF +178 / CLE -192
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.1 pts
- CLE: Elo 52.6%, market 64.6%
- Fair odds
- CLE -183
- SF +183 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.3 – 4.7 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −9 | SF: Carson Whisenhunt: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CLE: Foster Griffin: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +18 Elo | CLE 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 66.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 64.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 64.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.028th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 27th of 3022–40 | Road vs home | 29–3324th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 26th of 301473 | Elo rating | 149121st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–62 | 60–65 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 19–27 | 20–46 |
| Underdog | 43–35 | 40–19 |
| Overs–unders | 56–57–11 | 60–65 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 4–5 CLE in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.