Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Cole CarriggBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Tanner GordonPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Giants- Drew GilbertBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 4Eldridge singled to center, Devers scored.1–7
- 4Gilbert scored on Mushinski wild pitch, Devers to third on wild pitch by Mushinski.1–6
- 4Gilbert scored on Mushinski wild pitch, Devers to third on wild pitch by Mushinski.1–6
- 4Devers hit a ground rule double, Koss scored, Gilbert to third.1–5
- 4Gilbert singled to center, Cavanaugh scored and Kennedy scored, Koss to third.1–4
- 4Hill hit sacrifice fly to center, Lee scored.1–2
- 3Gilbert homered to right (361 feet).1–1
- 3Carrigg singled to left, Tovar scored, McCarthy to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SF 61%
- ML COL +155 / SF -167
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- SF: Elo 62.7%, market 61.5%
- Fair odds
- SF -159
- COL +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.2 – 4.3 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1418 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +5 | COL: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +91 Elo | SF 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 60.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 60.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 61.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.127th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.525th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 28th of 3022–41 | Road vs home | 28–3224th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 15019th of 30 |
| 30th of 301418 | Elo rating | 147526th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–58 | 61–61 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–5 | 18–26 |
| Underdog | 59–53 | 43–35 |
| Overs–unders | 58–60–4 | 54–57–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 15–35 SF in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 32 of 50.