Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Zac VeenBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Giants- Bryce EldridgeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Landen RouppPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Devers doubled to left, Cox scored.5–2
- 9Castro hit sacrifice fly to left, B. Sullivan scored on error, Moniak safe at second on error, McCarthy safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Bericoto.5–1
- 6Veen homered to right (406 feet), Norby scored.4–1
- 5Moniak grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, B. Sullivan scored.2–1
- 4Eldridge homered to center (409 feet).1–1
- 4Johnston tripled to right, Rumfield scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 56%
- ML COL +125 / SF -135
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.3 pts
- SF: Elo 61.6%, market 56.4%
- Fair odds
- SF -129
- COL +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.5 – 4.0 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1415 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −9 | COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Landen Roupp: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +82 Elo | SF 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 58.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 56.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −0.525th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 28th of 3021–41 | Road vs home | 28–3124th of 30 |
| 1st of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 30th of 301415 | Elo rating | 147826th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–58 | 61–60 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–5 | 18–25 |
| Underdog | 58–53 | 43–35 |
| Overs–unders | 58–59–4 | 54–56–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 14–35 SF in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 32 of 49.