Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Brett SullivanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Gabriel HughesPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Giants- Rafael DeversBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Blade TidwellPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7B. Sullivan homered to right (350 feet), Norby scored and Beck scored.13–7
- 6Moniak singled to left, Amador scored and McCarthy scored on error, Moniak safe at second on fielding error by left fielder Hill, Carrigg safe at third on error.10–7
- 6Carrigg hit by pitch, Beck scored, McCarthy to second, Amador to third.8–7
- 6Veen scored on Brubaker wild pitch, Beck to third on wild pitch by Brubaker.7–7
- 6Veen scored on Brubaker wild pitch, Beck to third on wild pitch by Brubaker.7–7
- 5Kennedy walked, Eldridge scored, Cavanaugh to second, Basabe to third.6–7
- 5Moniak hit sacrifice fly to center, McCarthy scored, Carrigg to third.6–6
- 5Carrigg doubled to left, Amador scored, McCarthy to third.5–6
- 3Hill singled to right, Basabe scored.4–6
- 2Devers homered to right (380 feet), Kennedy scored and Gilbert scored.4–5
- 2Gilbert singled to center, Hill scored, Kennedy to second.4–2
- 2Amador homered to right (374 feet), Beck scored and B. Sullivan scored.4–1
- 2Veen reached on infield single to second, Castro scored, Johnston to second.1–1
- 1Eldridge singled to center, Devers scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 54%
- ML COL +116 / SF -124
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.0 pts
- SF: Elo 60.5%, market 54.5%
- Fair odds
- SF -120
- COL +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.8 – 4.2 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1416 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −13 | COL: Gabriel Hughes: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · SF: Blade Tidwell: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +74 Elo | SF 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 54.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −0.525th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 28th of 3022–42 | Road vs home | 29–3224th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 150012th of 30 |
| 30th of 301416 | Elo rating | 147723rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–59 | 62–61 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–5 | 19–26 |
| Underdog | 59–54 | 43–35 |
| Overs–unders | 59–60–4 | 55–57–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 15–36 SF in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 33 of 51.