San Francisco Giants at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Willy AdamesBatting3-4
- Adrian HouserPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Angel MartinezBatting2-4
- Parker MessickPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 4Bericoto reached on infield single to shortstop, Devers scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 68%
- ML SF +206 / CLE -223
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.8 pts
- CLE: Elo 56.1%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- CLE -211
- SF +211 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 2.7 – 4.3 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +5 | SF: Matt Wilkinson (no track record yet) · CLE: Parker Messick: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +43 Elo | CLE 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 64.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 63.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.028th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.27th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.217th of 30 |
| 29th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 28th of 3022–41 | Road vs home | 30–3323rd of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15018th of 30 |
| 26th of 301470 | Elo rating | 149419th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–63 | 61–65 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 19–27 | 21–46 |
| Underdog | 43–36 | 40–19 |
| Overs–unders | 57–57–11 | 61–65 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 4–6 CLE in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.