San Francisco Giants at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Drew GilbertBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching2.2 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Red Sox- Willson ContrerasBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Abreu tripled to right, Sogard scored.4–6
- 4Devers homered to center (412 feet).4–5
- 4Gilbert homered to right (389 feet), Koss scored.3–5
- 3Gasper hit by pitch, Durbin scored, Monasterio to second, Duran to third.1–5
- 3Monasterio walked, Rutschman scored, Duran to second, Durbin to third.1–4
- 3Contreras homered to left, Sogard scored and Abreu scored.1–3
- 3Eldridge singled to right, Koss scored, Devers to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 63%
- ML SF +163 / BOS -176
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 63.9%, market 62.6%
- Fair odds
- BOS -168
- SF +168 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.2 – 4.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +16 | SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.82 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +99 Elo | BOS 63.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 63.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 62.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 27th of 3023–42 | Road vs home | 31–3221st of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150012th of 30 |
| 27th of 301470 | Elo rating | 15454th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–64 | 64–63 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 19–27 | 35–46 |
| Underdog | 44–37 | 29–17 |
| Overs–unders | 57–58–12 | 59–64–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 5–4 BOS in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.