Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Tyler StephensonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Rhett LowderPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Cubs- Pedro RamirezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- David PetersonPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Friedl homered to right (397 feet).10–8
- 8Suzuki doubled to left, Shaw scored.9–8
- 8Ramirez homered to right (390 feet), Happ scored and Hoerner scored.9–7
- 7Suzuki reached on infield single to shortstop, Kelly scored, Crow-Armstrong to second.9–4
- 7De La Cruz singled to left, McLain scored and Rodríguez scored, Myers to second.9–3
- 6Stephenson homered to center (399 feet), De La Cruz scored and Stewart scored.7–3
- 6Stewart reached on infield single to shortstop, Rodríguez scored, De La Cruz to third.4–3
- 6Trevino homered to center (395 feet).3–3
- 5Stewart homered to center (382 feet).2–3
- 4Rodríguez singled to center, Bleday scored.1–3
- 3Busch homered to right (374 feet), Suzuki scored.0–3
- 1Bregman doubled to right, Suzuki scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 65%
- ML CIN +179 / CHC -193
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- CHC: Elo 62.7%, market 64.8%
- Fair odds
- CHC -184
- CIN +184 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.8 – 5.2 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −8 | CIN: Rhett Lowder: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHC: David Peterson: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +90 Elo | CHC 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 63.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 63.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 64.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.21st of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.93rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 14th of 3031–35 | Road vs home | 38–278th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149727th of 30 |
| 27th of 301469 | Elo rating | 15464th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–69 | 67–67 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–30 | 35–53 |
| Underdog | 49–39 | 32–14 |
| Overs–unders | 70–62–2 | 70–57–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 24–22 CHC in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 46.