Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Hector RodriguezBatting3-6, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Giants- Rafael DeversBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Stephenson singled to left, McLain scored.10–9
- 9Trevino hit sacrifice fly to right, Myers scored, McLain to third.9–9
- 9Suárez homered to left center (401 feet), De La Cruz scored, Stewart scored and Bleday scored.8–9
- 9Rodríguez homered to right (423 feet).4–9
- 8Gilbert doubled to center, Hill scored, McCray scored and Knizner scored.3–9
- 7Stewart hit sacrifice fly to center, Hayes scored, De La Cruz to second, Rodríguez to third. San Francisco Giants challenged: call on the field was upheld.3–6
- 6Whitcomb homered to left center (410 feet), Koss scored.2–6
- 5Devers homered to right (414 feet), Cox scored.2–4
- 3Rodríguez homered to center (403 feet).2–2
- 2Cox homered to center (421 feet), Whitcomb scored.1–2
- 2Trevino singled to right, Myers scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 53%
- ML CIN +110 / SF -118
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- SF: Elo 55.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SF -114
- CIN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.4 – 3.6 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +7 | CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +36 Elo | SF 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.028th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 17th of 3030–35 | Road vs home | 31–3322nd of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 27th of 301467 | Elo rating | 147126th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–69 | 67–65 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–30 | 20–27 |
| Underdog | 48–39 | 47–38 |
| Overs–unders | 69–62–2 | 59–61–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 10–14 SF in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 24.