Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Tyler StephensonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chase BurnsPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Cubs- Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatting2-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Crow-Armstrong homered to right center (431 feet).7–5
- 8Hoerner hit sacrifice fly to right, Bregman scored.7–4
- 7Stewart homered to center (418 feet).7–3
- 5Stephenson homered to left (394 feet), De La Cruz scored.6–3
- 5Myers homered to left center (384 feet).4–3
- 4Ramirez flied out to right, Happ scored on throwing error by right fielder Rodríguez, Hoerner safe at second on error.3–3
- 4Rodríguez homered to right (387 feet), Suárez scored and McLain scored.3–2
- 2Conforto singled to right, Happ scored, Ramirez to second.0–2
- 1Crow-Armstrong homered to right center (417 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 59%
- ML CIN +140 / CHC -150
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- CHC: Elo 62.7%, market 59.0%
- Fair odds
- CHC -144
- CIN +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.3 – 5.2 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +7 | CIN: Chase Burns: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +90 Elo | CHC 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 59.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 59.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.31st of 30 |
| 26th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.93rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 15th of 3032–36 | Road vs home | 39–288th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149727th of 30 |
| 27th of 301468 | Elo rating | 15474th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–70 | 68–68 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–30 | 36–54 |
| Underdog | 50–40 | 32–14 |
| Overs–unders | 72–62–2 | 72–57–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 25–23 CHC in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 48.