Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Cooper PrattBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle HarrisonPitching3.2 IP, 9 ER, 3 K
Cubs- Alex BregmanBatting3-6, 3 HR, 4 RBI
- Clay HolmesPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bregman homered to left center (397 feet).3–17
- 8Conforto homered to right (400 feet), Amaya scored and Shaw scored.3–16
- 8Vaughn singled to center, Chourio scored.3–13
- 7Taylor singled to left, Crow-Armstrong scored.2–13
- 7Shaw homered to left (416 feet), Amaya scored.2–12
- 7Kelly homered to left (375 feet).2–10
- 7Pratt homered to left (394 feet), Lara scored.2–9
- 4Amaya walked, Taylor scored, Kelly to second, Hoerner to third.0–9
- 4Bregman homered to left center (395 feet).0–8
- 4Suzuki homered to center (408 feet).0–7
- 2Bregman homered to left (376 feet), Suzuki scored.0–6
- 1Kelly singled to left, Busch scored.0–4
- 1Hoerner homered to left center (393 feet).0–3
- 1Taylor homered to left center (419 feet), Suzuki scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 50%
- ML MIL -103 / CHC -105
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- CHC: Elo 51.3%, market 50.2%
- Fair odds
- CHC -101
- MIL +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.7 – 4.8 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1569 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +11 | MIL: Kyle Harrison: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Clay Holmes: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +9 Elo | CHC 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 50.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.31st of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.3 | Margin | +0.93rd of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3038–27 | Road vs home | 39–299th of 30 |
| 26th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149727th of 30 |
| 1st of 301569 | Elo rating | 15444th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–64 | 68–69 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 50–54 | 36–55 |
| Underdog | 23–10 | 32–14 |
| Overs–unders | 59–73–5 | 73–57–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 28–22 CHC in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 50.
- Jun 28CHC 4 @ MIL 3Picked MIL 60%Miss
- Jun 27CHC 8 @ MIL 2Picked MIL 58%Miss
- Jun 26CHC 2 @ MIL 6Picked MIL 69%Hit
- May 20MIL 5 @ CHC 0Picked CHC 53%Miss
- May 19MIL 5 @ CHC 2Picked MIL 53%Hit
- May 18MIL 9 @ CHC 3Picked CHC 59%Miss
- Oct 11CHC 1 @ MIL 3PlayoffsPicked MIL 57%Hit
- Oct 9MIL 0 @ CHC 6PlayoffsPicked MIL 52%Miss