Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Jake BauersBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle HarrisonPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Turang singled to right, Bauers scored, Vaughn to second.8–12
- 8Myers singled to left, Brito scored and Rodríguez scored.7–12
- 8Rodríguez singled to right, McLain scored, Rodríguez to second, Brito to third.7–10
- 8Naylor singled to left, Turang scored, Pratt to second.7–9
- 5Stephenson reached on infield single to shortstop, Myers scored.6–9
- 5De La Cruz doubled to center, Brito scored and Rodríguez scored, Myers to third.6–8
- 5Turang doubled to right, Mitchell scored and Bauers scored.6–6
- 5Mitchell singled to center, Chourio scored, Bauers to second.4–6
- 4De La Cruz homered to right center (402 feet), Myers scored.3–6
- 4Pratt hit sacrifice bunt, Mitchell scored, Pratt to second, Turang to second, Turang safe at third on throwing error by pitcher Singer.3–4
- 4Bauers homered to right center (408 feet), Chourio scored.2–4
- 3Brito doubled to center, Suárez scored.0–4
- 2Stewart hit sacrifice fly to right, Brito scored, Myers to third.0–3
- 2De La Cruz grounded into fielder's choice to third, McLain scored on throwing error by third baseman Hamilton, Myers to second, Brito to third.0–2
- 1Stephenson singled to left, Myers scored, De La Cruz to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 57%
- ML MIL -149 / CIN +123
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- MIL: Elo 58.8%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -133
- CIN +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.6 – 3.9 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1568 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −21 | −5 | MIL: Kyle Harrison: team allows 1.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +62 Elo | MIL 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 61.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.2 | Margin | −0.828th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 4th of 3041–30 | Road vs home | 35–3821st of 30 |
| 23rd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15018th of 30 |
| 1st of 301568 | Elo rating | 147226th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–67 | 70–72 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 52–56 | 16–30 |
| Underdog | 24–11 | 54–42 |
| Overs–unders | 63–75–5 | 75–65–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 34–14 CIN in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 48.