Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting3-4, 3 RBI
- Shane DrohanPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Reds- Eugenio SuarezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Rhett LowderPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Stewart singled to right, Myers scored.10–7
- 6Contreras doubled to left, Bauers scored.10–6
- 5Pratt scored on Moll wild pitch.9–6
- 5Pratt scored on Moll wild pitch.9–6
- 5Pratt tripled to right, Yelich scored, Contreras scored and Turang scored.8–6
- 5Turang hit by pitch, Chourio scored, Contreras to second, Yelich to third.5–6
- 3Suárez homered to center (408 feet), De La Cruz scored and Stephenson scored.4–6
- 3Turang doubled to right, Contreras scored and Chourio scored.4–3
- 2McLain homered to left center (391 feet), Suárez scored.2–3
- 2Hamilton tripled to right, Mitchell scored.2–1
- 2Pratt grounded out to second, Turang scored, Mitchell to third.1–1
- 1De La Cruz singled to left, Myers scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 58%
- ML MIL -155 / CIN +128
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- MIL: Elo 60.6%, market 58.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -139
- CIN +139 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 5.1 – 4.4 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1568 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −6 | MIL: Shane Drohan: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CIN: Rhett Lowder: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +75 Elo | MIL 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 61.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 61.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 58.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.2 | Margin | −0.828th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3040–29 | Road vs home | 34–3722nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15019th of 30 |
| 1st of 301568 | Elo rating | 147227th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–66 | 69–71 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 51–55 | 16–30 |
| Underdog | 24–11 | 53–41 |
| Overs–unders | 62–74–5 | 74–64–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 33–13 CIN in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 46.